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TPC @ Sawgrass
Hi All,
The TPC @ Sawgrass starts tomorrow in Florida - widely reknowned as the Tours "5th Major", the event is always worth watching as a spectacle, not least for the infamous 17th green - which from the tee looks like a postage stamp...and having stood on the tee myself, I know!!! From a betting perspective, the event is theoretically more attractive with the fact that the TPC is Tiger-less...an operation keeping the phenom on the sidelines. So for a nice change, its not just a likely each-way value bet we can search for. My idea of the winner at this stage is Jim Furyk. Around the 18/1 mark, Jim is one of the most accurate, consistent tee to green players on the circuit and has the stats to back it up, which is absolutely necessary at Sawgress. He has a very deft short game and while his putter can take some time to heat up, he can make enough putts to always keep himself there and there abouts at the business end of tourneys. He has a good record in past TPC's and has the big event temperament to do very well this time around. For other players who will give you a very good run for your money and good e/w alternatives, with chances to turn your stake into a very nice payday, look at Hunter Mahan (75/1 Bet365), Justin Leonard (70/1) and Paul Casey (100/1). The first two again are very high on the greens in regulation and driving accuracy stats lists, with Leonard enjoying an Indian Summer of a season in his long and distinguished career. Hunter Mahan has a big win waiting to happen in him whilst Casey - a Brit based in America - keeping himself focused on the bigger events this season to continue his push for a Ryder Cup place and he was very much in the mix at the Masters until a final round mare - which at Augusta is very easy to do. My bets/forecasts for the tournament then : 2 pts win Jim Furyk 2 pts e/w Justin Leonard 1 pt e/w Hunter Mahan and Paul Casey |
Superb another golf backer.......i love a bet on the golf and i will have a little study later and post my selections...
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Good little write up mark well done i'll take a look a bit later
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Yep superb write up just how we like it.
Lee and myself like a little punt on golf and we had a good run for our money at The Masters. I like to look for the value pre tournie and then lay off on the exchanges if hopefully my picks shorten. |
Cheers guys,
I love my golf, whether playing, watching or just having a natter about it, and love nothing more than having a vested interest in events knowing ill be watching as much of the tourney as possible anyway. Be interested to see what you make of the TPC and whom you tip up...but nice knowing i have compadres to do battle with over a game of sticks n balls!!! |
right having a look at the players and markets on the tpc i think there is some quite good value in this event
will post my views a tad later 1 to watch could be robert allenby as his GIR are only 2nd to tiger (i think) and this course would suit him but will have a good look and post up my selections by the way allenby is about 50/1 so good e/w value |
Heres my thoughts..............
Firstly this is one of my favs as anything can happen over the last few holes so if your up there on the last day you always have a chance.
Looking at the field its very open now Tiger isnt playing. For my sort of bets i prefer Tiger in as he keeps the prices a bit tighter and good for laying later in the tournie. Well after a study i have five against the field at Laddies prices (although i will bet with the exchanges as you could get 10 or more points over Laddies). STUART CINK...(20/1) Has been playing some consistant golf over the last few weeks 7 top ten finishes in his last 10 starts. Not the greatest of winners but i think he could be right there come Sunday afternoon on a course that rewards consistancy ahead of flair. SERGIO GARCIA...(40/1) Been right off his game over the last 18 months but i think hes starting to get his game together again and with the help of his girlfriends father (Greg Norman) i think his putting is beginning to get somewhere near to what it was when he was winning consistantly. SCOTT VERPLANK,,,(100/1) A player who has promised so much and has been right in contention at the big ones but has failed to deliver. He has always played well here and i think that this course provides his best chance to win big STEPHEN AMES...(80/1) Overpriced as usual for a golfer who when he gets on a roll is as good as most of the top 10 (Tiger being the exception). I have backed him a few times and although he has never won for me has always given me a good run and i have been able to lay him off for a profit HENDRIK STENSON...(40/1) Not a player i back very often but hes the man in form and if you take away his early departure from this years WGC matchplay his last events read...17th 3rd 6th 2nd 2nd and i think hes going to be my main bet in this and i hope his good form can continue on a course that suits his game and one where he has played well before. Lets hope we get a good run for our money......good luck guys and enjoy.. We can keep up todate on this thread. |
had a good look and here's my picks only pick 3 or 4 normally so here goes robert allenby 50/1
vijay singh 20/1 ian poulter 100/1 (now thats value if he can play like he did at the start of augusta) sergio garcia 30/1 prices at bet 365 as of 21:00 if ian poulter gets his act together i quite fancy him to finish in the top 5 i try and hold off til the 1st round is over to see how the players and course is playing Lee |
Sergios 40s on Laddies...
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cheers for that Tony i'll back him there then :clap:
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Latest prices on my picks..
CINK........(25/1 L) (30/1 betdaq) GARCIA.......(33/1 L) (40/1 BD) STENSON....(40/1 L) (55/1 BD) AMES..........(50/1 L) (70/1 BD) VERPLANK....(100/1 L) (220/1 BD) I have taken Betdaq prices on my runners. |
Like Stewart Cink Tony - very solid player who never seems to miss a cut or play a bad tourney. Just like you say he struggles turn top 10's into wins...30/1 is some price though and I may have to take that up myself.
Europeans have a shocking record in this tourney - just one winner since the event was introduced in the late 70's - Sandy Lyle in 1987. Players very rarely win more than one TPC - only Nicklaus, Hal Sutton, Davis Love and Freddy Couples have ever won more than one TPC - these would count very much against Garcia, Stenson and Ames. Verplank looks big at 100/1 - let alone 220/1 - in name alone, but he is in a dire run of form this season (3 missed cuts and no top 25 place finishes in the 3 tourneys he did make the cut) suggesting he is floundering somewhat. Still, Trevor Immelman had no form to point to (and has done squat since also) until he ran away with the Masters (though i still maintain that all his contenders made it very easy for him in Round 4) and we know that golf is very much an "on the day" thing, so this could yet turn out to be a great selection. All gets underway later....cant wait. Good luck all!!! |
Very true...
If you go back through these posts you will find Ballys and my Masters selections and we both had runners the last day but one by one they fell away and as you so rightly said gifted it to Immelman. I had a fair bet on Casey pre tourny and he mucked u big time and that wasnt the first time he has done that going into a final round of a major (us open was the other).
This is very open and i think we have fair value with the prices but as long as we get a run for our money we cant ask for anymore. Verplank is in shocking form but always seems to appear on the leaderboard sometime during these big events and although not a prolific winner on tour hes one of those players who could be around when everyone is gifting it come Sunday. Good luck with your selections and we will keep upto date with how things are going.... |
There can be only one winner
And his name is Luke Donald generally available @50/1
But I havent backed a winner since Cheltenham Golf players are a funny breed,any of them are capable on their day of putting a score together,its their mental ability to cope with the pressure that determines the winner.Augusta and sawgrass are fantastic venues and make fantastic viewing on sunday night if your selections are in the hunt for victory. my 3 selections are Luke Donald @50/1,K J Choi @40/1,Boo Weekley @70/1 I always have a punt on Boo,dont you just love the name. gla |
Really good to see a few punters on the golf....love watching (and hacking round) my fav sport to bet on and make a profit..
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Heartily agreed...its good being in company with like minded folk about (arguably!) the greatest, and hardest, sport played on the planet.
No Bally....it isnt poker....sorry to shatter your illusion!!! Hehe... Fine start by Garcia.... Early prediction on winning score? Im saying that if a player ends up around the -10 mark come Sunday evening he wont be far off lifting the trophy.... |
See one of Tony's tips for the Masters has steamed into an early share of the lead of the TPC
A Cabrera |
As usual Captain.....a few tournies too late
Just our luck to see him win.... |
Sergio Garcia
Leading 3 clear @ 6 under.
at 2 under and 7th is JOHN MREEICK (isnt he the elephant man ?) 8-P Bet they would hate to see him win .....just think of the photos... Poulter going well too at 100/1 |
Hunter Mahon has WITHDRAWN ...dont know if he started
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:loveme:followed some advice of your tips poulter and garcia e/w 100/1 and 33/1 cmon u golfers
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TPC Sawgrass...
After two rounds are runners have struggled a little but we still have good chances with...
GARCIA (-5) currently joint second one shot behind. WEEKLY (-4) Two shots behind and right there AMES (-2) Four shots behind after shooting a low score yesterday. POULTER (-1) Five behind but not out of it. |
i've laid a bit off poulter but i put a bit on Paul Goydos each way at 16-1 to me this screams value with his first 2 round scores of 68 and 71 he is playing pretty consistant and only 1 off the lead
garcia had a bad round yesterday by his standard finishing with a 73 he needs to recapture thursday's form where he hit a 66 but he is still well in the hunt but his value has gone now if you haven't already took Tony's advice he is currently only 4-1 |
Nice choice that Lee. Goydus is one of those players who doesnt scream out " back me " pre tournement but a very capable player and at 16/1 thats good odds.
I think we saw why Garcia has fallen down the rankings yesterday...he cant put four rounds together but luckily for us he had a good lead and scoring was tough yesterday. Now if he can just shoot four under for the last two dys i think he will win.. My perdicted winning score is....9 under |
yep i don't think you'll be far off with -9 i still can't believe how well Langer played yesterday i'd like to see him win it my heart says he could do it but my head says he will fall away today/tomorrow
my theroy on betting on the golf is have a few small bets pre tournament see how the 1st day goes have a few small bets possably lay off some of the pre tournament bets if you can get some value then after round 2 you can gauge who is playing well and staying consistantly close to the leaders and then go for the value bets for each way and possably go on to win that's why i got on Goydos as if he starts well his odds will plumet today |
Its interesting to see that Sergio leads the field in the stats for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation - Serge is not normally known for his driving accuracy so your comment Tony about his new found relationship with Greg Norman, who was usually superb off the tee, could be a very astute one.
Casey had a shocker, Leonard just missed the cut, Furyk clinging on at +2, and as said Mahan withdrew pre tourney, which was a shame. Good luck to you both though, some fine selections justifying your investments in them - hope they come through for you. |
Thanks Shark....Sergio was a little unlucky to double 17 having not gone in the water or 3 putted and hopefully he can get back to the form he showed Thursday today.
I think its still not too late to have a bit more on AMES and STENSON as with the weather forcast being for 90% the greens will be like rock come tomorrow and the winning score could even be -3 or less.. |
The golfs...............
Hotting up nicely.......dont think AMES is out of it yet. I can see -3 being the winning score...
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it's looking very tough out there today think i'd be more than happy with an even round today goydos still looking ok though
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Yes hes playing well, everytime i see Garcia hes in a bloody bunker or missing a putt.......if only he could have holed a few we would have been collecting already....i had another £10 on AMES at 125/1 and might try to lay off at 15/1......
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that wouldn't be the worst idea get what you can least you'll make a decent profit from 125-1
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ive laid him for £50 at 16/1............
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